Kenya needs more installed power capacity

Peak demand recently hit 2,411 megawatts while effective peak capacity lags at 2,370 megawatts. Effective capacity at peak considers what would be available to meet our evening peak of 3,200 megawatts installed on the grid.

This includes all our thermal capacity, and still, we will fall short of demand at peak. This directly implies that we are switching off some consumers at peak hours due to insufficient generation.

We additionally find ourselves importing 280 megawatts from Ethiopia and Uganda to supplement local generation. This implies that more than 10 percent of the power we use is imported, without an effective local backup, exposing the country to external shocks.

These two neighbouring economies have growing populations and own ambitions for expanding industrial activity. Our desires for supply will, in time, be overridden by their own needs to grow. Enabling this trade under the Eastern African Power Pool is desirable, but at the same time, Kenya needs to have a failsafe.

Extreme weather, political or technical events, could imply that Kenya is not able to access the imported power. We would have to ration whatever power would be available at that time, limiting economic and social activities.

Simply put, we need more generation on the Kenyan national power grid. Preferably locally installed.

Coming back to the public scepticism when numbers like 10 gigawatts (GW) and 1.2 trillion are pronounced, I understand, relate to and respect the reaction.

We have been treated to a circus of projected increases in generation in the past, from the 5GW in two years of the NARC era to the 40GW by 2040 of the Jubilee era. All pipe dreams without tangible demand plans or a visible outcome in 2025.

It is a case of once bitten twice shy, thrice sceptical. You see, demand availability is the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Increased generation capacity must follow projected demand, and technical teams should take the lead in projecting desired installed capacity. Kenya has a very capable least-cost power planning team that, when presented with firm demand, can project desired generation capacity.

Demand and generation projections should be above board and based on committed projects in generation and industrialisation. The sector had planned for years, considering committed projects under Vision 2030, most of which have not seen the light of day, five years to 2030.

Gross over-generation with the technologies available to us will result in increased costs, while under-generation will stifle economic growth and our capacity to attract investments.

Demand is organically growing at between 100 megawatts and 140 megawatts each year, but that does not mean that we cannot end up with a single industry requiring greater than 500 megawatts.

We can also not afford to have 2GW lying in wait without a plan for the demand. Consumers would bear the huge costs for copious amounts of idle power. This is why demand and generation normally grow hand in hand within a certain margin, with generation leading the way.

Not only should the technicalities of balancing demand and generation be considered, but the process of onboarding new generation needs to be above board.

Every Kenyan understands the desperate need for infrastructure to develop our economy, but not at the altar of opaque processes and lined-up favourites.

These often end up being a raw deal to the economy and are often a prelude to industry-scale pogroms by new regimes looking to smoke out past beneficiaries. We then end up in moratoria that delay much-needed infrastructure. The Adani fiasco must have surely taught us something.

This is part of the angle sceptics of recent pronouncements are operating from, once bitten, twice shy.

We must allow those tasked with projecting demand and supply to do their job and take the lead. We need more generation on the grid.

The power must, however, be procured in above-board approaches open to competition.

George Aluru is the CEO, Electricity Sector Association of Kenya