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Why Buy Apple Stock?

Posted by Quinn Zerfas On October - 23 - 2006

In the past few weeks there’s been a lot of hustle and bustle over Apple Computers and everyone seems to be seeing dollar signs, but why? With the touch screen iPod and iPhone in the rumor pipelines and iTV very much on its way to a store near you, everyone is expecting a huge increase in the sales being made by Apple and its affiliates.

We all (hopefully) know by now that Jobs just released the quarterly earnings last Wednesday after the close of trading which resulted in six percent increase in the value of the stock on Thursday morning, up $4.46 a share. This is due mainly in part to the record sales of Apple Computers in the history of the company and the continuing success of the iPod, this quarter alone saw the sale of 1.6 million computers and 8.7 million iPods which brings the fiscal year totals to 5.3 million and 39 million units respectively.

This obviously isn’t the only reason analysts’ at UBS and CNBC’s Jim Cramer of Mad Money are all screaming BULL MARKET! (Bull Markets are associated with investor confidence with expectations of higher capital gains, whereas Bear Markets are associated with pessimism). So let us examine these expectations of higher capital gains.

We will start with the substantial, iTV. This was a very unusual move for Apple to pre-announce its new product like this, but there is method to the madness. Not due until late first quarter or early second quarter of 2007, the iTV (current project name subject to change) will offer wireless and high definition transmission of your favorite media content from your computer out to your home theater system, and just in case you don’t have wireless there is an Ethernet jack to hardwire the device into your home network. This is a must buy for anyone that is taking advantage of the iTunes music/video store because now with new movies being added to the collection of media, everyone is going to need a means to view them on a screen larger than 1.5 inches. Now the only reason I can see why Apple is spilling the beans a little early on iTV is purely profit based. The two main competitors to iTV are going to be Windows Media and Slingbox (access iTV from anywhere, I’m willing to bet so) and Apple is letting consumers know that they might just want to hold out for a product from a company known for its stability. But more-so Apple is sending up a flare to movie and television studios that have yet to sign with iTunes and are looking into the Windows alternative and saying you may just want to wait to make your final deal. So at $299 a unit and $9.99 - $12.99 a film from iTunes we are only spelling out massive revenue for 2007.

Now the iTV isn’t the only surprise we have in store for the new year. For the last six months everyone has been talking about the next step in the evolution of iPod with its sixth generation incarnation, the current iPod video being the fifth generation or 5G. The time is almost upon us for the unveiling of the iPod Touch screen based on the numerous leaks at patent filings on the Internet. Apple has yet to comment, but do you really think some color nanos and a 80GB iPod is all that’s coming? I think not. One researcher whose article was pulled claimed to be in contact with an unnamed executive of an unnamed Apple affiliate who has a hand in making iPods. This mystery executive claims the new iPod will be out before the end of this year. Now I can’t really give much sustenance to something like this, but we can face the facts, the iPod Touch screen is coming and it is not even November yet. We could very well see its launch just in time for the holiday season (can you say dollar signs?) or it may stay tucked away until Macworld in January in which case we may not see it until much later in 2007.

Other patent filings hint at Wi-Fi capable iPods that could permit the iPod to record samples of music from thin air, transmit the samples to a service that identifies the song in question and then allows the user to purchase that song from iTunes. In addition to that there has also been filings for a program being dubbed MacXM, which would allow Mac OS X to control an XM satellite device. So there is no shortage to the potential of future iPods.

But that’s not all coming from our friendly local patent office. There have been filings that make reference to interfacing with AT&T’s mMode and just last month Apple trademarked “iPhone” making us all believe that the project is in its final stages of conception and also a Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a research note there is more evidence of the existence of the iPhone in the resource files in the new iTunes 7. Its no surprise that Apple would chose AT&T to launch its smart phone with, AT&T Wireless has an international market where as competitors like Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile do not. Don’t fret though because Apple is not one to play the exclusion game, but then again who knows what terms AT&T is setting if Apple really is getting into bed with them.

New products isn’t where the buck stops either for Apple, there are many new market innovations that will add to the flow of cash coming into the company. To name a few, Apple has just been granted permits to build a three-story state of the art retail store in the center of the Boston Shopping District that will be the model for future Apple stores across the country. Apple has started School Nights at the Apple retail stores where not only are kids getting the chance to learn the use of Apple products like iMovie, iPhoto, and Garage Band to name a few, but it gives them a positive forum to showcase their digital projects, a program that over 2000 schools have already participated in.

But perhaps the biggest news for the marketplace is the new union of Apple and Best Buy. For anyone that lives in Southern California, you may have wandered into one of the seven local Best Buys that were selected to market Apple Computers in addition to the iPods it had been selling for Apple for years now. After evaluating the seven-store program that began last spring, Apple is ready to expand the project and Best Buy is more than ready to incorporate the program to a majority of its 900+ stores if the project proved to be successful, which it has. This move is expected to generate an additional 400 million dollars per year in Apple sales. There have been talks with Circuit City in trying a similar program, but there has yet to be any definite response from the Best Buy competitor.

So with new products, new deals, and new means of consumption all coming in the very near future, all I can say now is buy in now before Jobs makes most of this official at his keynote address in January at Macworld. After that analysts believe the stock will climb to $105 a share by April and as history has dictated for Apple, we’ll see a nice stock split and start this process again for the coming years. Bottom line, if Apple had ever fallen off, its back in full force to take command of the digital media revolution.

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